Theory Of Tourism Demand

Theory Of Tourism DemandPresently, immense research in the field of economics of tourism since the 1970s take to vigorous established models and methodologies to quantify tourism require. Main f motionors that heightend its signifi tin dissolvece ar for recitation income in the artless of origin, relative tourism prices at the finis, or substitute prices of an alternative conclusion.On the other hand travel motivation has been a focus within close choice theories. The typical phaeton undertakes some(prenominal) steps before deciding for a vacation destination. Each stage is diverged by internal and external stimuli and the tourists figure maximize its utility, thus to make the most of it.It becomes appargonnt that the root of total tourism quest lies within both economic and socio-psychological theories. It is the intention of the thesis to therefore propose a wealthy person framework. In order to essay its validity a survey give be conducted to capture stereotype s associated with Ireland and the Irish and to what extend this influences Ireland as a destination choice. The results will past be incorporated into the new framework to help future research testing other vari up to(p)s. writings ReviewTheory of Tourism Demand query differentiates surrounded by two major approaches to analyze tourism guide Tourism economists generally consider an economic framework while travel motivation primary(prenominal)ly applies a socio-psychological framework (Goh, 2012). The following paragraphs will go into more detail on each of the theories to illustrate that tourism demand gouge be derived from theories of destination choice as well as market demand theory.Although get a lineing the characteristics of tourism is a comparably new era starting in the 1960s, this industrys lush growth has also led to an equally extensive evolution as a field of study and consequently its methods and findings.Neoclassical economic theory commonly assumes a multi- stage budgeting exploit for every choice for a certain product or service. Within a tourism context this offshoot can be divided as in normal . Additionally, each stage corresponds to a utility maximization problem where the consumer subconsciously intends to maximize the utility of the choices within the stipulation budget constraint (Smeral Weber, 2000). As Figure illustrates the budget line shows how different combinations of tourism expenditure could be allotd to the destinations, but the indifference curve shows that the tourist wishes to allocate set proportions of the budget to each (Sinclair Stabler, 1997).The most recent review papers by vocal and Li (2008) and Song et al. (2012) summarize the research progress do in respect of approaches, applied methods, innovations, emerging topics, research gaps, and directions for future research. According to their assessment a number of researchers admit created and tested a variety of demand models for different destinatio ns in order to quantify its contacts. Most commonly the number of arrivals is used as the indicator for total tourism demand of a destination, although tourist expenditure, and tourist nights in registered accommodations were chosen in some studies. Predominantly considered determinants that empirically proved to have an tinct on tourism demand wereIncome in country of originRelative tourism prices at destinationSubstitute prices of alternative destinationTravel costMarketing expenditureOne-off events(Song, et al., 2009)While total impact and its explanatory variables have been thoroughly investigated with several econometric models, little attention is placed to the social context of tourism decision making tralatitious demand theory does non explain how preferences and tastes are formed and change (Sinclair Stabler, 1997, p. 29).Decision-making processes, its comp whiznts and generalized frameworks have been widely researched all over the past decades (Crompton Um, 1991 W oodside Lysonski, 1989). Decrop (2005) for example classified the factors of tourists decision-making process into six cognitive constructsTourist perceptionLearning and attitudePersonality and self-conceptMotivation and involvementEmotionContextOn the contrary, Crompton and Um (1991) explain how tourists perception of a destination is influenced by internal and external inputs (see Figure ). Connecting the findings of Heung et al. (2001) review about major vacation motives and Gallarza et al. (2002) findings on attributes related to the destination image, it becomes apparent that research exploring factors influencing destination choice has been extensive.Despite the wide recognition of Um and Cromptonss framework of a multi-stage destination choice and acceptance that beliefs and attitudes are related to destination preferences, they are some restrictions when it comes to the act of purchasing a vacation at a destination. During the early stage of selecting a destination socio-ps ychological factors such(prenominal) as image or beliefs are evidential indicators in specifing which destination evolved to a late consideration stage. However, the ultimate selection depends to a higher magnitude on perceived inhibtors acting on a potential traveler such as monetary constraints (Crompton Um, 1992). According to Crompton and Ums findings in the consumer behavior, tourism, and recreation choice lit constraints should be integrated into the cognitive choice process. (Crompton Um, 1992, p. 97)Figure Framework of decision-making process by Crompton and Um (1991) (Source Own illustration)Similarly, very few prior studies focused on the influence of socio-psychological factors on demand itself. During the 1970s several studies think that a large number of explanatory variables affecting demand are too small to have a significant influence, but if aggregated are likely to be as important as prices and income in determining travel growth. (Goh, 2012, p. 1862). Additio nally, OHagan and Harrison (1984) again proved the high significance of non-economic factors in their study.The main cause for omitting relevant variables in tourism demand theory is its difficulty to define and collect accurate measures (Song Witt, 2000). Attempts to integrate socio-psychological factors into tourism demand models have failed due to the pretermit of appropriated procedures and econometric models. As most these factors are more commonly interrelated a new more complex modeling approach would have to be designed and tested. As Stabler nones Though motivations and preferences, in which images are embodied, are acknowledged as being important, they tend to be ignored by main pour economists, because they are either assumed to be relatively stable and therefore do not influence the model, or are considered too complex to bonk with. (Stabler, 1988, p. 137)In summary, apart from each other the economic perspective as well as the socio-psychological aspect has been s ubject to extensive research. Both fields of study realize their incompleteness when it comes to assessing tourist behavior and demand. However, to fully comprehend and measure the tourism demand, theories of destination choice and theory of market demand should be mingled to create an in-depth understanding (Goh, 2012).StereotypingSocial categorizing allows people to respond quicker to a range of perceptual impressions. As Lustig and Koester (1999) state the way humans process can be broken down into three aspectsConceptual categories1Ethnocentrism2StereotypingFor this thesis most important, is the effect of stereotyping. First booted by Lippmann in 1922 it refers to a selection process to modify our perception of others creating pictures in our heads (Lippmann, 1922, p. 5). Basically, the cognitive representations of a assort influence our thinking, judgment and behavior of people within that group. Hewstone and Brown (1986) defined three characteristics of stereotypesOften in dividuals are categorized, usually on the basis of easily identifiable characteristics such as sex or ethnicity.A set of attributes is ascribed to all (or most) members of that category. Individuals belonging to the stereotyped group are assumed to be similar to each other, and different from other groups, on this set of attributes.The set of attributes is ascribed to any individual member of that category (p. 29)Thus, by and by defining an out-group, they, on the basis of their differing characteristic to oneself, the dissimilarities are emphasized and extended in order to create a more distinct division between the social groups. Last, the characteristics are attributed to all members of that group, resulting in a soul not being treated as an individual, but as a typical example of a category (Lustig Koester, 1999 Hinton, 2000).Before judging, people rarely gather a sufficient amount of information from various resources. Most commonly, they had a direct fuck with a few people of the out-group, received information and opinions second hand such as from friends or relatives, were influenced by the output of the mass media, or notwithstanding general pigeonhole thinking (Brewer, 1996). These sources that form a stereotype initially are moreover the multipliers and causes for stereotypes shared by an entire social group. As Stangor and Schaller (1996, pp. 4-5) mention From one perspective stereotypes are represented within the mind of an individual person. From the other perspective, stereotypes are represented as part of the social fabric of a society, shared by the people within the culture. Because group set and group behavior exit the underlying foundation of stereotyping, stereotypes only have meaning to the tip they are culturally shared. Stereotyping is therefore not only an individual problem, but when they are shared within a society they have a considerable (positive or negative) impact on the labeled individual or group.As diverse and intric ate as the environment appears to be and as useful as it seems to simplify this complexity by structuring, the more dangerous it becomes to misjudge and have inaccurate assumptions. Judd and Park (1993) assessed three major phenomena resulting from stereotyping The so-called out-group homogeneity effect causes the person in the in-group to consider members of the out-group to be much more similar to one another than in reality. Second, humans tend to make wrong or inappropriately exaggerated assumptions about the group average, such as when all US Americans are assumed to be friendly and service-oriented, but also superficial. Third, the phenomenon of prejudices occurs when there is a negative valence inaccuracy, thus a negative attribute is weighted more important while the positive is being ignored or underestimated. For instance, when see the US a tourist could stereotype all Americans being superficial or insincere (the negative attribute), but disregarding the fact that they are super service and customer oriented (positive attribute). Conversely, one can show a positive valence inaccuracy.As Kunda and Scherman-Williams already proved in 1993 imprecise stereotyping can eventually lead to false interpretation of ambiguous incidents. Consider, for example, the unambiguous event of losing a soccer game. Ethnic stereotypes could relate the failure to laziness if the team was from Germany or low ability if the team is Kazakhstani. Thus, stereotypes will affect judgments of the targets ability even if subjects base these judgments only on the act, because the stereotypes will check into the meaning of the act. (Kunda Sherman-Williams, 1993, p. 97)Stereotypes even have consequences for future behavior. An investigation by Seta and Seta (1993) revealed the following resultsThe stereotype would persist even after the subjects were exposed to a disconfirming behavior as they expected a future action would compensate for the atypical behaviorIf a subjects stere otype would be consistently challenged by a member of the stereotyped group indeed expected compensatory behavior would cease. Nevertheless, the subject still expects another member of the group to make up for the disconfirming behavior.This way people are still able to anticipate certain future events without making it necessary to revise their deeply set beliefs and values.In conclusion, stereotypes are highly subjective, but because experiences and events are shared through various channels, it can eventually lead to a shared consensus. Although categorizing helps an individual to cope with an ambiguous environment more efficiently, caution has to be exercised to avoid unsportsmanlike judgment of others behavior. Stereotyping is a strong set of beliefs and values, which is difficult to overcome for an individual and consequently even less likely for an entire social group.ConclusionLiterature review gives a scattered insight into tourism behavior and demand. The field of touri sm economics with its consistent developments in methodological innovations, research progresses, and different approaches consists of a comprehensive body of knowledge and theoretical foundations. Similarly, extensive research in the tourist behavior area and especially the understanding of decision-making process has led to a number of frameworks and assessment methods. Apart from each other, both have empirically and qualitatively evidence for a number of factors influencing the consumer equilibrium the point at which the tourists economic constraints intersects with the consumer indifference curve. Thus, market demand is proven to be depicted from economic as well as socio-psychological theories. However, only very few studies attempted to combine and investigate their relationship and impact.Factors influencing destination choice and destination image are many. Stereotypes are one of numerous causes shaping personality and beliefs. Due to its persistent constitution and dif ficulty to overcome deeply held principles, stereotypes proved to be highly influential on expectations towards future situations peoples behavior. Thus, although stereotyping is a commonly known phenomena its implications into tourism theories is yet limited.The literature gave a profound understanding of economic and non-economic tourism theories as well as origin and impact of stereotypes on social behavior. It is the papers intention to prove a significant relationship between stereotypes and its influence on destination choice.Research ProblemResearch ProblemIt is evident from the literature that market demand as well as destination choice theory face constraints when trying to explain the complexity of tourists choices. Despite their methodological developments in econometric models over the past decades, integrating qualitative as well as quantitative measures has failed due to lack of available entropy or complexity. Similarly, socio-psychological frameworks tend to omit i nhibitors and constraints such as budget.From the research problem identified above, the research question can be formulated as followsTo what extend can stereotypes be classified as a relevant factor influencing tourism demand?In other words, the author will intends to link both economic and socio-psychological factors into tourism demand theory. Further, it is hypothesized that stereotypes have a significant impact on the decision-making process of tourists and thus tourism demand in general.Research ObjectivesThe research objectives are generated from the research question and should provide clearer sense of purpose and direction for the researcher (Baker, 2000). The following research objectives arise from the scheme aboveEstablish a framework that includes both socio-psychological and economic factorsSong et al. (2012) as well as Song Li (2008) noted in their review papers that developments in tourism demand are limited to quantitative measures. During their early works Crom pton Um (1992) realized as well that the destination choice process is not limited to intrinsic motivators. Goh (2012) recently proposed an initial framework linking destination choice and theory of market demand.Investigate on stereotypes subsisting towards Ireland/IrishSeta Seta (1993) found that stereotypes deep-rooted and difficult to overcome. Stereotypes about Ireland and the Irish are widespread which could be due to its high emigration throughout the previous centuries. Since its subjective nature social science has not scientifically named or analyzed existing stereotypes. It will ths become essential to collect primary info.Analyze connection between existing stereotypes and willingness to choose Ireland as a vacation destinationThe multi-stage destination decision-making process has most commonly been researched by Crompton Um (1991 1992) and Decrop (2005). Influencing factors are numeral and their magnitudinal impact depends on the stage of the process as well.Asses s to what extend the economic tourism demand formula can be extended by the socio-psychological factorsResearch integrating socio-psychological aspects with tourism demand theory is limited. For example, Goh (2012) was able to link the factor weather with tourism demand theory. Based on the framework established from the first objective the author intends to generalize the findings.Research MethodThe methodology outlines how the research objectives are to be achieved within the given time frame and explains the rationale behind the chosen method (Saunders, et al., 1997). Special emphasize is to be placed on the research design, info collection, and ethical implications.Research DesignIn order to resolve the above mentioned research objectives a triangulate approach has been chosen, applying both quantitative as well as qualitative methods.First, in order to fully comprehend and test the relationship between stereotypes and tourism demand, a framework needs to be created which stem s from economical as well as consumer choice theory. This inductive and more discovery-oriented approach is necessary due to the lack of available research and quantitative data that have the two fields of study. Through an investigation of the literature about economic tourism demand and socio-psychological theory, the exploratory research will confidently result in a comprehensive tourism demand framework. Additionally, it will clarify the authors understanding about the separateness and consequently help to successfully commence with subsequent objectives (Heath Tynan, 2010).The main focus of this thesis will rely on a positive approach though, thus deducing a hypothesis from the theory and empirically testing it (Saunders, et al., 1997). The intention is to quantitatively prove a causal relationship between stereotypes and tourism demand. From the literature review it can be concluded that socio-psychological factors play a major role when deciding for a destination and as a result imply to have certain impact on tourism demand of that destination. However, this hypothesis has not been tested yet.In order to do accomplish objectives two and three a survey will be conducted among people who have not visited or lived in Ireland. Conducting surveys allows the researchers to have more control over the research process and is widely perceived as authoritative by people in general (Saunders, et al., 1997).According to an analysis from Irelands national tourism board Filte Ireland its main markets are Britain, North America, France, and Germany (Filte Ireland, 2011). The author intends to collect sufficient amount of data from at least two source countries, namely United States and Germany. As the survey is standardized it will be easier to distribute to the different nations and later canvass the received results. It aims at accumulation cross-sectional data about the kinds of stereotypes existing towards Ireland and the Irish as well as the participants wi llingness to choose Ireland as a vacation destination based on their held beliefs. Regression analysis will then allow the author to conduct the fourth step of positivist research Examining the item outcome of the inquiry. It will either tend to confirm the theory or indicate the need for its modification (Robson, 2002, pp. 18-19)According to Saunders et al. (1997) the data collected might not reach such a wide range as a qualitative research method would due to the limited number of questions a questionnaire can contain. However, in case the conducted survey does not give sufficient causal explanation, thus its validity and reliability cannot be assured, additional secondary data from a recent survey by Filte Ireland could be analyzed who interrogated tourists that have chosen Ireland as a vacation destination (Filte Ireland, 2011). It is important to note though, this data can only serve supplementary as a clear distinction between stereotypes and other reasons to choose Ireland has not been considered.The reason for choosing a positivist approach is the advantages that come with it. Its deductive nature allows the application of a rigorous structure that would make this hypothesis applicable to generalization and give an opportunity for just research to test other socio-psychological factors (Easterby-Smith, et al., 2001).The last objective intends to incorporate the findings from the survey into the framework proposed at the beginning of the research applying the knowledge gained throughout the thesis. If the survey were to prove the causal relationship between stereotypes leading to higher likeliness to choose Ireland, the hypothesis demonstrated its validity. The fourth objective is to conclude to what extend the findings can be generalized and applied to other non-economic factors.Data CollectionAs mentioned above the main purpose of this thesis is a survey among US and German citizens collecting empirical data about stereotypes towards Ireland and th e Irish as well as their willingness to choose Ireland as a vacation destination based on their held beliefs. Irish born as well as residents who previously visited Ireland are excluded. This specification is especially relevant as stereotypes root mainly from other peoples experience (i.e. visitors to Ireland) and/or limited familiarity with the other social group (i.e. Irish emigrants) (Brewer, 1996).The author targets to gain 50 utilizable questionnaires from each nation, totaling to n=100. In order to ensure a high number of participants from Germany the survey will be translated into German as well.Distribution will primarily be channeled as a web questionnaire through social media. This note only enables the survey to reach a wide range of potential partakers and guarantees there anonymity, but also ensures a certain direct of randomness which is one of the main challenges when conducting surveys. Although the author cannot fully exclude a connection with all the participants , the potentially exponential circulation minimizes this risk.The data then will be used for a elongated regression analysis in order to validate how the in mutually beneficial variable (stereotype) impacts the dependent variable (select Ireland as vacation destination). The linear regression will only be an approximation of the true relationship though, as it is not possible to include all the variables which may have an influence on the dependent variable (Koop, 2009). The omission of these variables in the model is referred to as the error term. The basic regression model is written aswhere y equals dependent variable (select Ireland as vacation destination), coefficients and , x represents the independent variable (stereotype), and refers to the error term. A null hypothesis test will be applied to determine whether results are statistically significant.Main problems arising using regression analysis can be autocorrelation, omitted variable bias and multi-collinearity (Koop, 2 009). As the hypothesis is only testing the impact of one independent variable on one dependent variable, autocorrelation can be neglected. Similarly, multi-collinearity, evident through high p-values and low t-stats can be excluded as only one explanatory variable is applied. However, omitted variable bias can lead to unreliable coefficients if an explanatory variable which may have an impact on the dependent variable are omitted from the data set. However, as mentioned above it is nearly impossible to include all explanatory variables, which is why the error term is included. The values of the coefficients will nevertheless be treated with caution.Ethical considerations have to be taken into account as well. The online survey ensures the participants anonymity and no personal data will be collected. Additionally, it goes without saying that the author conducts this hypothesis in an objective and non-discriminatory manner. Stereotypes have a tendency to classify or even favor one s ocial group over the other. The thesis is not intended to strengthen or overcome beliefs towards Ireland or the Irish, but to capture a snapshot of existing stereotypes.